How the New York Giants Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-08 to 2025-12-28
As favorite
76-46
Win rate
62.3%
Sample size
122 games
vs market
-3.3 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The New York Giants have been the betting favorite in 122 graded games and won 76 of them — 62.3%. The market priced those same games at 79.3 expected wins, so they finished -3.3 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 39-17 (69.6%) across 56 games, against 41.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs DAL · 2010 Week 1082.1%
Lost 20–33 on 2010-11-14 · game detail
- vs SEA · 2011 Week 579.9%
Lost 25–36 on 2011-10-09 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2009 Week 1677.3%
Lost 9–41 on 2009-12-27 · game detail
- vs MIN · 2007 Week 1276.0%
Lost 17–41 on 2007-11-25 · game detail
- vs DAL · 2018 Week 1775.3%
Lost 35–36 on 2018-12-30 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2009 Week 775.3%
Lost 17–24 on 2009-10-25 · game detail
- at CLE · 2008 Week 675.1%
Lost 14–35 on 2008-10-13 · game detail
- at CAR · 2024 Week 1071.8%
Lost 17–20 on 2024-11-10 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 45-0 as favorite · market expected 62.1%100%
- Week 146-1 as favorite · market expected 61.9%86%
- Week 65-1 as favorite · market expected 67.8%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 102-6 as favorite · market expected 65.9%25%
- Week 33-5 as favorite · market expected 58.4%38%
- Week 154-5 as favorite · market expected 64.8%44%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 61% |
| Week 2 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 63% |
| Week 3 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 58% |
| Week 4 | 5 | 5-0 | 100% | 62% |
| Week 5 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 73% |
| Week 6 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 68% |
| Week 7 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 8 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 71% |
| Week 9 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 68% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 2-6 | 25% | 66% |
| Week 11 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 66% |
| Week 12 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 13 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 14 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 62% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 65% |
| Week 16 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 17 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 63% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 58% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.