How the New Orleans Saints Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-08 to 2026-10-05
As favorite
141-70
Win rate
66.8%
Sample size
211 games
vs market
-3.7 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The New Orleans Saints have been the betting favorite in 211 graded games and won 141 of them — 66.8%. The market priced those same games at 144.7 expected wins, so they finished -3.7 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 96-37 (72.2%) across 133 games, against 99.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at LA · 2011 Week 887.9%
Lost 21–31 on 2011-10-30 · game detail
- vs TB · 2009 Week 1686.8%
Lost 17–20 on 2009-12-27 · game detail
- vs ATL · 2019 Week 1083.9%
Lost 9–26 on 2019-11-10 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2010 Week 783.7%
Lost 17–30 on 2010-10-24 · game detail
- vs LA · 2007 Week 1082.1%
Lost 29–37 on 2007-11-11 · game detail
- at SEA · 2010 Week 1881.3%
Lost 36–41 on 2011-01-08 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2006 Week 1580.3%
Lost 10–16 on 2006-12-17 · game detail
- vs TB · 2018 Week 179.9%
Lost 40–48 on 2018-09-09 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 812-2 as favorite · market expected 65.3%86%
- Week 1110-2 as favorite · market expected 70.0%83%
- Week 77-2 as favorite · market expected 70.3%78%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 34-9 as favorite · market expected 64.9%31%
- Week 25-6 as favorite · market expected 66.4%45%
- Week 105-6 as favorite · market expected 69.3%45%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 68% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 66% |
| Week 3 | 13 | 4-9 | 31% | 65% |
| Week 4 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 5 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 67% |
| Week 6 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 66% |
| Week 7 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 70% |
| Week 8 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 65% |
| Week 9 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 71% |
| Week 10 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 69% |
| Week 11 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 70% |
| Week 12 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 68% |
| Week 13 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 72% |
| Week 14 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 15 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 71% |
| Week 16 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 17 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 71% |
| Week 18 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 73% |
| Week 19 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 67% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 62% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.