How the New England Patriots Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-08 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
208-60
Win rate
77.6%
Sample size
268 games
vs market
+14.2 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The New England Patriots have been the betting favorite in 268 graded games and won 208 of them — 77.6%. The market priced those same games at 193.8 expected wins, so they finished +14.2 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 167-26 (86.5%) across 193 games, against 149.6 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs MIA · 2019 Week 1789.0%
Lost 24–27 on 2019-12-29 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2012 Week 284.6%
Lost 18–20 on 2012-09-16 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2006 Week 1082.1%
Lost 14–17 on 2006-11-12 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2011 Week 981.6%
Lost 20–24 on 2011-11-06 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2007 Week 2181.5%
Lost 14–17 on 2008-02-03 · game detail
- at MIA · 2017 Week 1480.9%
Lost 20–27 on 2017-12-11 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2017 Week 479.9%
Lost 30–33 on 2017-10-01 · game detail
- vs KC · 2017 Week 179.6%
Lost 27–42 on 2017-09-07 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 815-1 as favorite · market expected 72.0%94%
- Week 1910-1 as favorite · market expected 77.1%91%
- Week 1214-2 as favorite · market expected 70.9%88%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 182-4 as favorite · market expected 70.7%33%
- Week 213-3 as favorite · market expected 63.4%50%
- Week 105-3 as favorite · market expected 71.8%63%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 70% |
| Week 2 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 69% |
| Week 3 | 14 | 11-3 | 79% | 76% |
| Week 4 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 68% |
| Week 5 | 16 | 13-3 | 81% | 71% |
| Week 6 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 71% |
| Week 7 | 16 | 13-3 | 81% | 72% |
| Week 8 | 16 | 15-1 | 94% | 72% |
| Week 9 | 14 | 9-5 | 64% | 70% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 72% |
| Week 11 | 15 | 13-2 | 87% | 74% |
| Week 12 | 16 | 14-2 | 88% | 71% |
| Week 13 | 14 | 10-4 | 71% | 76% |
| Week 14 | 14 | 10-4 | 71% | 70% |
| Week 15 | 14 | 11-3 | 79% | 73% |
| Week 16 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 75% |
| Week 17 | 16 | 13-3 | 81% | 78% |
| Week 18 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 71% |
| Week 19 | 11 | 10-1 | 91% | 77% |
| Week 20 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 71% |
| Week 21 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 63% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.