How the Minnesota Vikings Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-08 to 2026-10-25
As favorite
124-54
Win rate
69.7%
Sample size
178 games
vs market
+8.3 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Minnesota Vikings have been the betting favorite in 178 graded games and won 124 of them — 69.7%. The market priced those same games at 115.7 expected wins, so they finished +8.3 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 64-17 (79.0%) across 81 games, against 59.8 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs BUF · 2018 Week 389.3%
Lost 6–27 on 2018-09-23 · game detail
- at CAR · 2009 Week 1577.8%
Lost 7–26 on 2009-12-20 · game detail
- at CHI · 2009 Week 1677.3%
Lost 30–36 on 2009-12-28 · game detail
- vs DAL · 2020 Week 1173.1%
Lost 28–31 on 2020-11-22 · game detail
- at DET · 2021 Week 1372.6%
Lost 27–29 on 2021-12-05 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2013 Week 372.6%
Lost 27–31 on 2013-09-22 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2007 Week 1669.3%
Lost 21–32 on 2007-12-23 · game detail
- vs IND · 2016 Week 1568.8%
Lost 6–34 on 2016-12-18 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 512-0 as favorite · market expected 68.5%100%
- Week 149-1 as favorite · market expected 67.8%90%
- Week 128-1 as favorite · market expected 62.8%89%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 22-5 as favorite · market expected 61.3%29%
- Week 45-5 as favorite · market expected 61.8%50%
- Week 85-4 as favorite · market expected 66.5%56%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 15 | 11-4 | 73% | 59% |
| Week 2 | 7 | 2-5 | 29% | 61% |
| Week 3 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 66% |
| Week 4 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 62% |
| Week 5 | 12 | 12-0 | 100% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 62% |
| Week 7 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 63% |
| Week 8 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 67% |
| Week 9 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 66% |
| Week 10 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 70% |
| Week 11 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 65% |
| Week 12 | 9 | 8-1 | 89% | 63% |
| Week 13 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 64% |
| Week 14 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 68% |
| Week 15 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 70% |
| Week 16 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 68% |
| Week 17 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 67% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 72% |
| Week 19 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 58% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.