How the Miami Dolphins Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-01 to 2025-12-07
As favorite
79-45
Win rate
63.7%
Sample size
124 games
vs market
-0.4 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Miami Dolphins have been the betting favorite in 124 graded games and won 79 of them — 63.7%. The market priced those same games at 79.4 expected wins, so they finished -0.4 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 35-11 (76.1%) across 46 games, against 34.2 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs TEN · 2023 Week 1486.8%
Lost 27–28 on 2023-12-11 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2014 Week 1774.4%
Lost 24–37 on 2014-12-28 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2013 Week 1771.9%
Lost 7–20 on 2013-12-29 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2012 Week 1071.6%
Lost 3–37 on 2012-11-11 · game detail
- vs GB · 2006 Week 771.5%
Lost 24–34 on 2006-10-22 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2013 Week 770.1%
Lost 21–23 on 2013-10-20 · game detail
- vs KC · 2014 Week 369.1%
Lost 15–34 on 2014-09-21 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2010 Week 1368.9%
Lost 10–13 on 2010-12-05 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 157-1 as favorite · market expected 66.3%88%
- Week 126-1 as favorite · market expected 73.2%86%
- Week 85-1 as favorite · market expected 63.3%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 142-4 as favorite · market expected 65.3%33%
- Week 43-5 as favorite · market expected 58.3%38%
- Week 172-3 as favorite · market expected 63.8%40%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 4 | 4-0 | 100% | 61% |
| Week 2 | 4 | 1-3 | 25% | 58% |
| Week 3 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 62% |
| Week 4 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 58% |
| Week 5 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 59% |
| Week 6 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 72% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 8 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 63% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 61% |
| Week 10 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 63% |
| Week 11 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 68% |
| Week 12 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 73% |
| Week 13 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 68% |
| Week 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 65% |
| Week 15 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 66% |
| Week 16 | 12 | 6-6 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 17 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 64% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 65% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.