How the Los Angeles Rams Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
107-52
Win rate
67.3%
Sample size
159 games
vs market
+1.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Los Angeles Rams have been the betting favorite in 159 graded games and won 107 of them — 67.3%. The market priced those same games at 105.4 expected wins, so they finished +1.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 58-18 (76.3%) across 76 games, against 57.3 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs NYJ · 2020 Week 1590.9%
Lost 20–23 on 2020-12-20 · game detail
- vs PHI · 2018 Week 1586.0%
Lost 23–30 on 2018-12-16 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2026 Week 684.0%
Lost 16–18 on 2026-10-18 · game detail
- at CAR · 2025 Week 1381.7%
Lost 28–31 on 2025-11-30 · game detail
- vs TB · 2019 Week 480.0%
Lost 40–55 on 2019-09-29 · game detail
- vs SF · 2025 Week 578.2%
Lost 23–26 on 2025-10-02 · game detail
- vs CHI · 2015 Week 1077.0%
Lost 13–37 on 2015-11-15 · game detail
- at ATL · 2025 Week 1776.0%
Lost 24–27 on 2025-12-29 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 79-1 as favorite · market expected 68.9%90%
- Week 1310-2 as favorite · market expected 68.2%83%
- Week 168-2 as favorite · market expected 65.3%80%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 154-7 as favorite · market expected 66.1%36%
- Week 105-5 as favorite · market expected 66.7%50%
- Week 93-3 as favorite · market expected 67.0%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 61% |
| Week 2 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 66% |
| Week 3 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 62% |
| Week 4 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 5 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 67% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 71% |
| Week 7 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 69% |
| Week 8 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 71% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 10 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 11 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 61% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 61% |
| Week 13 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 68% |
| Week 14 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 63% |
| Week 15 | 11 | 4-7 | 36% | 66% |
| Week 16 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 65% |
| Week 17 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 67% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 73% |
| Week 19 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 73% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 64% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 62% |
| Week 22 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 63% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.