How the Los Angeles Chargers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-09-20
As favorite
129-78
Win rate
62.3%
Sample size
207 games
vs market
-11.1 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been the betting favorite in 207 graded games and won 129 of them — 62.3%. The market priced those same games at 140.1 expected wins, so they finished -11.1 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 84-29 (74.3%) across 113 games, against 85.5 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs KC · 2007 Week 486.7%
Lost 16–30 on 2007-09-30 · game detail
- vs LV · 2010 Week 1384.4%
Lost 13–28 on 2010-12-05 · game detail
- at HOU · 2021 Week 1683.9%
Lost 29–41 on 2021-12-26 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2026 Week 178.7%
Lost 14–26 on 2026-09-13 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2009 Week 1978.3%
Lost 14–17 on 2010-01-17 · game detail
- at LA · 2010 Week 677.1%
Lost 17–20 on 2010-10-17 · game detail
- at CIN · 2010 Week 1675.9%
Lost 20–34 on 2010-12-26 · game detail
- vs LV · 2011 Week 1074.9%
Lost 17–24 on 2011-11-10 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 1712-1 as favorite · market expected 72.7%92%
- Week 1410-1 as favorite · market expected 72.0%91%
- Week 910-2 as favorite · market expected 64.4%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 33-6 as favorite · market expected 68.1%33%
- Week 75-8 as favorite · market expected 62.8%38%
- Week 26-6 as favorite · market expected 63.5%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 66% |
| Week 2 | 12 | 6-6 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 3 | 9 | 3-6 | 33% | 68% |
| Week 4 | 16 | 11-5 | 69% | 69% |
| Week 5 | 13 | 7-6 | 54% | 64% |
| Week 6 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 69% |
| Week 7 | 13 | 5-8 | 38% | 63% |
| Week 8 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 69% |
| Week 9 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 64% |
| Week 10 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 68% |
| Week 11 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 68% |
| Week 12 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 68% |
| Week 13 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 69% |
| Week 14 | 11 | 10-1 | 91% | 72% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 68% |
| Week 16 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 70% |
| Week 17 | 13 | 12-1 | 92% | 73% |
| Week 18 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 71% |
| Week 19 | 4 | 0-4 | 0% | 65% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.