How the Las Vegas Raiders Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-12-03 to 2025-11-23
As favorite
45-40
Win rate
52.9%
Sample size
85 games
vs market
-6.9 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Las Vegas Raiders have been the betting favorite in 85 graded games and won 45 of them — 52.9%. The market priced those same games at 51.9 expected wins, so they finished -6.9 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 12-6 (66.7%) across 18 games, against 13.1 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs DEN · 2011 Week 975.2%
Lost 24–38 on 2011-11-06 · game detail
- vs JAX · 2019 Week 1572.6%
Lost 16–20 on 2019-12-15 · game detail
- at LA · 2022 Week 1471.8%
Lost 16–17 on 2022-12-08 · game detail
- vs CHI · 2021 Week 569.1%
Lost 9–20 on 2021-10-10 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2024 Week 368.1%
Lost 22–36 on 2024-09-22 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2022 Week 267.2%
Lost 23–29 on 2022-09-18 · game detail
- vs IND · 2022 Week 1064.8%
Lost 20–25 on 2022-11-13 · game detail
- vs ATL · 2016 Week 264.5%
Lost 28–35 on 2016-09-18 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 156-3 as favorite · market expected 62.5%67%
- Week 134-3 as favorite · market expected 64.5%57%
- Week 124-4 as favorite · market expected 59.6%50%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 94-6 as favorite · market expected 57.3%40%
- Week 33-4 as favorite · market expected 60.2%43%
- Week 124-4 as favorite · market expected 59.6%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 56% |
| Week 2 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 60% |
| Week 4 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 57% |
| Week 5 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 61% |
| Week 6 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 63% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 62% |
| Week 8 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 53% |
| Week 9 | 10 | 4-6 | 40% | 57% |
| Week 10 | 4 | 1-3 | 25% | 62% |
| Week 11 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 13 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 65% |
| Week 14 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 72% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 62% |
| Week 16 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 61% |
| Week 17 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 55% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 61% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.