How the Kansas City Chiefs Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-10-18
As favorite
160-65
Win rate
71.1%
Sample size
225 games
vs market
+5.7 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the betting favorite in 225 graded games and won 160 of them — 71.1%. The market priced those same games at 154.3 expected wins, so they finished +5.7 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 110-24 (82.1%) across 134 games, against 100.9 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs LV · 2023 Week 1682.2%
Lost 14–20 on 2023-12-25 · game detail
- vs IND · 2019 Week 580.9%
Lost 13–19 on 2019-10-06 · game detail
- vs LV · 2020 Week 580.1%
Lost 32–40 on 2020-10-11 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2017 Week 1879.2%
Lost 21–22 on 2018-01-06 · game detail
- vs CHI · 2015 Week 578.8%
Lost 17–18 on 2015-10-11 · game detail
- at NYG · 2017 Week 1177.7%
Lost 9–12 on 2017-11-19 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2017 Week 1275.9%
Lost 10–16 on 2017-11-26 · game detail
- vs IND · 2013 Week 1675.7%
Lost 7–23 on 2013-12-22 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 410-0 as favorite · market expected 71.6%100%
- Week 812-2 as favorite · market expected 73.0%86%
- Week 710-2 as favorite · market expected 68.4%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 104-4 as favorite · market expected 68.0%50%
- Week 183-3 as favorite · market expected 69.4%50%
- Week 137-6 as favorite · market expected 70.3%54%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 64% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 68% |
| Week 4 | 10 | 10-0 | 100% | 72% |
| Week 5 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 66% |
| Week 6 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 68% |
| Week 7 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 68% |
| Week 8 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 73% |
| Week 9 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 69% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 68% |
| Week 11 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 69% |
| Week 12 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 13 | 13 | 7-6 | 54% | 70% |
| Week 14 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 68% |
| Week 15 | 14 | 10-4 | 71% | 69% |
| Week 16 | 15 | 10-5 | 67% | 71% |
| Week 17 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 70% |
| Week 18 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 69% |
| Week 19 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 72% |
| Week 20 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 69% |
| Week 21 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 59% |
| Week 22 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 52% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.