How the Jacksonville Jaguars Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
62-46
Win rate
57.4%
Sample size
108 games
vs market
-8.4 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the betting favorite in 108 graded games and won 62 of them — 57.4%. The market priced those same games at 70.4 expected wins, so they finished -8.4 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 30-17 (63.8%) across 47 games, against 35.2 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs HOU · 2006 Week 1082.1%
Lost 10–13 on 2006-11-12 · game detail
- vs CIN · 2023 Week 1381.2%
Lost 31–34 on 2023-12-04 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2018 Week 378.6%
Lost 6–9 on 2018-09-23 · game detail
- at HOU · 2006 Week 776.3%
Lost 7–27 on 2006-10-22 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2007 Week 176.3%
Lost 10–13 on 2007-09-09 · game detail
- vs HOU · 2023 Week 376.0%
Lost 17–37 on 2023-09-24 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2018 Week 1575.3%
Lost 13–16 on 2018-12-16 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2010 Week 1673.5%
Lost 17–20 on 2010-12-26 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 117-0 as favorite · market expected 65.7%100%
- Week 175-0 as favorite · market expected 60.9%100%
- Week 145-1 as favorite · market expected 60.4%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 63-6 as favorite · market expected 61.6%33%
- Week 152-4 as favorite · market expected 71.7%33%
- Week 162-4 as favorite · market expected 67.8%33%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 67% |
| Week 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 68% |
| Week 3 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 65% |
| Week 4 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 5 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 9 | 3-6 | 33% | 62% |
| Week 7 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 65% |
| Week 8 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 66% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 10 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 63% |
| Week 11 | 7 | 7-0 | 100% | 66% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 62% |
| Week 13 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 77% |
| Week 14 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 60% |
| Week 15 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 72% |
| Week 16 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 68% |
| Week 17 | 5 | 5-0 | 100% | 61% |
| Week 18 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 71% |
| Week 19 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 53% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.