How the Indianapolis Colts Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-01 to 2025-12-07
As favorite
137-50
Win rate
73.3%
Sample size
187 games
vs market
+12.4 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Indianapolis Colts have been the betting favorite in 187 graded games and won 137 of them — 73.3%. The market priced those same games at 124.6 expected wins, so they finished +12.4 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 76-20 (79.2%) across 96 games, against 72.3 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at JAX · 2021 Week 1887.2%
Lost 11–26 on 2022-01-09 · game detail
- vs LAC · 2007 Week 1983.0%
Lost 24–28 on 2008-01-13 · game detail
- vs MIA · 2019 Week 1080.2%
Lost 12–16 on 2019-11-10 · game detail
- at HOU · 2006 Week 1679.7%
Lost 24–27 on 2006-12-24 · game detail
- vs LV · 2021 Week 1777.2%
Lost 20–23 on 2022-01-02 · game detail
- at NYG · 2024 Week 1777.2%
Lost 33–45 on 2024-12-29 · game detail
- vs LA · 2013 Week 1075.2%
Lost 8–38 on 2013-11-10 · game detail
- at TEN · 2006 Week 1374.6%
Lost 17–20 on 2006-12-03 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 1511-1 as favorite · market expected 67.2%92%
- Week 310-1 as favorite · market expected 63.7%91%
- Week 59-1 as favorite · market expected 67.6%90%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 14-6 as favorite · market expected 62.9%40%
- Week 183-4 as favorite · market expected 65.2%43%
- Week 24-5 as favorite · market expected 61.9%44%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 4-6 | 40% | 63% |
| Week 2 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 62% |
| Week 3 | 11 | 10-1 | 91% | 64% |
| Week 4 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 73% |
| Week 5 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 65% |
| Week 7 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 65% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 70% |
| Week 9 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 65% |
| Week 10 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 67% |
| Week 11 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 61% |
| Week 12 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 66% |
| Week 13 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 67% |
| Week 14 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 65% |
| Week 15 | 12 | 11-1 | 92% | 67% |
| Week 16 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 67% |
| Week 17 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 74% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 65% |
| Week 19 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 77% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 69% |
| Week 21 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 67% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.