How the Houston Texans Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-11-19 to 2026-10-25
As favorite
105-50
Win rate
67.7%
Sample size
155 games
vs market
+2.3 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Houston Texans have been the betting favorite in 155 graded games and won 105 of them — 67.7%. The market priced those same games at 102.7 expected wins, so they finished +2.3 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 61-20 (75.3%) across 81 games, against 59.5 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs LV · 2013 Week 1180.5%
Lost 23–28 on 2013-11-17 · game detail
- vs JAX · 2013 Week 1280.5%
Lost 6–13 on 2013-11-24 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2026 Week 780.4%
Lost 21–27 on 2026-10-25 · game detail
- vs LA · 2013 Week 677.9%
Lost 13–38 on 2013-10-13 · game detail
- vs DEN · 2019 Week 1477.2%
Lost 24–38 on 2019-12-08 · game detail
- vs MIN · 2012 Week 1675.9%
Lost 6–23 on 2012-12-23 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2024 Week 1275.7%
Lost 27–32 on 2024-11-24 · game detail
- vs CIN · 2020 Week 1674.2%
Lost 31–37 on 2020-12-27 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 810-1 as favorite · market expected 66.0%91%
- Week 179-1 as favorite · market expected 70.0%90%
- Week 136-1 as favorite · market expected 64.4%86%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 142-7 as favorite · market expected 62.9%22%
- Week 32-5 as favorite · market expected 60.2%29%
- Week 164-5 as favorite · market expected 68.8%44%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 67% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 63% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 2-5 | 29% | 60% |
| Week 4 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 66% |
| Week 5 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 65% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 7 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 70% |
| Week 8 | 11 | 10-1 | 91% | 66% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 59% |
| Week 11 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 67% |
| Week 12 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 65% |
| Week 13 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 64% |
| Week 14 | 9 | 2-7 | 22% | 63% |
| Week 15 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 74% |
| Week 16 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 69% |
| Week 17 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 70% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 63% |
| Week 19 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 58% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.