How the Green Bay Packers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-29 to 2026-10-29
As favorite
169-66
Win rate
71.9%
Sample size
235 games
vs market
+6.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Green Bay Packers have been the betting favorite in 235 graded games and won 169 of them — 71.9%. The market priced those same games at 162.4 expected wins, so they finished +6.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 114-30 (79.2%) across 144 games, against 109.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs CAR · 2025 Week 987.2%
Lost 13–16 on 2025-11-02 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2018 Week 1385.1%
Lost 17–20 on 2018-12-02 · game detail
- vs DET · 2015 Week 1083.5%
Lost 16–18 on 2015-11-15 · game detail
- at KC · 2011 Week 1583.3%
Lost 14–19 on 2011-12-18 · game detail
- at TB · 2009 Week 980.8%
Lost 28–38 on 2009-11-08 · game detail
- vs CHI · 2013 Week 980.6%
Lost 20–27 on 2013-11-04 · game detail
- at CLE · 2025 Week 379.1%
Lost 10–13 on 2025-09-21 · game detail
- vs CHI · 2015 Week 1278.5%
Lost 13–17 on 2015-11-26 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 212-1 as favorite · market expected 70.6%92%
- Week 712-1 as favorite · market expected 70.0%92%
- Week 1612-1 as favorite · market expected 73.7%92%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 95-7 as favorite · market expected 71.8%42%
- Week 183-4 as favorite · market expected 67.5%43%
- Week 36-6 as favorite · market expected 66.9%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 63% |
| Week 2 | 13 | 12-1 | 92% | 71% |
| Week 3 | 12 | 6-6 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 4 | 14 | 11-3 | 79% | 70% |
| Week 5 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 69% |
| Week 6 | 17 | 12-5 | 71% | 68% |
| Week 7 | 13 | 12-1 | 92% | 70% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 67% |
| Week 9 | 12 | 5-7 | 42% | 72% |
| Week 10 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 72% |
| Week 11 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 67% |
| Week 12 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 70% |
| Week 13 | 15 | 12-3 | 80% | 67% |
| Week 14 | 15 | 13-2 | 87% | 73% |
| Week 15 | 15 | 10-5 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 16 | 13 | 12-1 | 92% | 74% |
| Week 17 | 15 | 10-5 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 67% |
| Week 19 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 70% |
| Week 20 | 4 | 1-3 | 25% | 68% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 58% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.