How the Detroit Lions Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-11-12 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
98-45
Win rate
68.5%
Sample size
143 games
vs market
+4.9 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Detroit Lions have been the betting favorite in 143 graded games and won 98 of them — 68.5%. The market priced those same games at 93.1 expected wins, so they finished +4.9 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 45-20 (69.2%) across 65 games, against 48.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs MIN · 2025 Week 981.2%
Lost 24–27 on 2025-11-02 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2024 Week 2080.4%
Lost 31–45 on 2025-01-18 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2013 Week 1679.9%
Lost 20–23 on 2013-12-22 · game detail
- vs GB · 2023 Week 1277.7%
Lost 22–29 on 2023-11-23 · game detail
- vs PIT · 2025 Week 1677.7%
Lost 24–29 on 2025-12-21 · game detail
- vs TB · 2024 Week 275.7%
Lost 16–20 on 2024-09-15 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2018 Week 175.4%
Lost 17–48 on 2018-09-10 · game detail
- at MIN · 2025 Week 1775.1%
Lost 10–23 on 2025-12-25 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 36-1 as favorite · market expected 60.1%86%
- Week 66-1 as favorite · market expected 60.7%86%
- Week 89-2 as favorite · market expected 64.4%82%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 23-4 as favorite · market expected 67.2%43%
- Week 44-4 as favorite · market expected 64.0%50%
- Week 124-3 as favorite · market expected 70.0%57%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 68% |
| Week 2 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 67% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 60% |
| Week 4 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 5 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 67% |
| Week 6 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 61% |
| Week 7 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 59% |
| Week 8 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 64% |
| Week 9 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 64% |
| Week 10 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 64% |
| Week 11 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 12 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 70% |
| Week 13 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 68% |
| Week 14 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 63% |
| Week 15 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 66% |
| Week 16 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 68% |
| Week 17 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 66% |
| Week 18 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 61% |
| Week 19 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 59% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 75% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.