How the Denver Broncos Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-09 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
119-65
Win rate
64.7%
Sample size
184 games
vs market
-4.5 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Denver Broncos have been the betting favorite in 184 graded games and won 119 of them — 64.7%. The market priced those same games at 123.5 expected wins, so they finished -4.5 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 71-20 (78.0%) across 91 games, against 69.4 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs LV · 2009 Week 1585.6%
Lost 19–20 on 2009-12-20 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2017 Week 685.4%
Lost 10–23 on 2017-10-15 · game detail
- vs SF · 2006 Week 1782.4%
Lost 23–26 on 2006-12-31 · game detail
- vs LAC · 2013 Week 1580.5%
Lost 20–27 on 2013-12-12 · game detail
- vs IND · 2014 Week 1979.5%
Lost 13–24 on 2015-01-11 · game detail
- vs KC · 2009 Week 1779.2%
Lost 24–44 on 2010-01-03 · game detail
- vs BAL · 2012 Week 1977.7%
Lost 35–38 on 2013-01-12 · game detail
- vs LV · 2008 Week 1277.5%
Lost 10–31 on 2008-11-23 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 29-2 as favorite · market expected 66.7%82%
- Week 79-2 as favorite · market expected 65.0%82%
- Week 88-2 as favorite · market expected 67.3%80%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 91-5 as favorite · market expected 59.6%17%
- Week 165-8 as favorite · market expected 66.0%38%
- Week 124-4 as favorite · market expected 66.5%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 65% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 67% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 66% |
| Week 4 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 66% |
| Week 5 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 63% |
| Week 6 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 73% |
| Week 7 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 65% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 67% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 1-5 | 17% | 60% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 70% |
| Week 11 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 62% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 66% |
| Week 13 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 67% |
| Week 14 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 72% |
| Week 15 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 63% |
| Week 16 | 13 | 5-8 | 38% | 66% |
| Week 17 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 74% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 80% |
| Week 19 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 76% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 60% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 54% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.