How the Dallas Cowboys Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
140-76
Win rate
64.8%
Sample size
216 games
vs market
-7.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Dallas Cowboys have been the betting favorite in 216 graded games and won 140 of them — 64.8%. The market priced those same games at 147.6 expected wins, so they finished -7.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 93-31 (75.0%) across 124 games, against 93.6 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs DET · 2006 Week 1788.7%
Lost 31–39 on 2006-12-31 · game detail
- at ARI · 2023 Week 383.2%
Lost 16–28 on 2023-09-24 · game detail
- vs PHI · 2007 Week 1581.7%
Lost 6–10 on 2007-12-16 · game detail
- vs TB · 2026 Week 580.8%
Lost 16–24 on 2026-10-08 · game detail
- vs DEN · 2021 Week 979.7%
Lost 16–30 on 2021-11-07 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2014 Week 879.2%
Lost 17–20 on 2014-10-27 · game detail
- vs GB · 2023 Week 1974.4%
Lost 32–48 on 2024-01-14 · game detail
- vs NO · 2006 Week 1474.2%
Lost 17–42 on 2006-12-10 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 1112-0 as favorite · market expected 70.4%100%
- Week 1210-3 as favorite · market expected 75.3%77%
- Week 39-3 as favorite · market expected 67.2%75%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 191-4 as favorite · market expected 66.3%20%
- Week 64-5 as favorite · market expected 64.4%44%
- Week 168-7 as favorite · market expected 67.8%53%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 65% |
| Week 2 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 67% |
| Week 4 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 65% |
| Week 5 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 72% |
| Week 6 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 64% |
| Week 7 | 15 | 10-5 | 67% | 66% |
| Week 8 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 71% |
| Week 9 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 68% |
| Week 10 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 66% |
| Week 11 | 12 | 12-0 | 100% | 70% |
| Week 12 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 75% |
| Week 13 | 14 | 10-4 | 71% | 71% |
| Week 14 | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 68% |
| Week 15 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 70% |
| Week 16 | 15 | 8-7 | 53% | 68% |
| Week 17 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 70% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 69% |
| Week 19 | 5 | 1-4 | 20% | 66% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.