How the Cincinnati Bengals Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
101-63
Win rate
61.6%
Sample size
164 games
vs market
-6.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Cincinnati Bengals have been the betting favorite in 164 graded games and won 101 of them — 61.6%. The market priced those same games at 107.6 expected wins, so they finished -6.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 56-23 (70.9%) across 79 games, against 58.2 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at NYJ · 2021 Week 881.0%
Lost 31–34 on 2021-10-31 · game detail
- vs HOU · 2015 Week 1080.5%
Lost 6–10 on 2015-11-16 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2025 Week 1878.7%
Lost 18–20 on 2026-01-04 · game detail
- at LV · 2009 Week 1177.8%
Lost 17–20 on 2009-11-22 · game detail
- at SF · 2007 Week 1576.6%
Lost 13–20 on 2007-12-15 · game detail
- vs NE · 2024 Week 175.7%
Lost 10–16 on 2024-09-08 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2024 Week 374.8%
Lost 33–38 on 2024-09-23 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2014 Week 674.4%
Lost 37–37 on 2014-10-12 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 128-0 as favorite · market expected 70.2%100%
- Week 76-0 as favorite · market expected 68.4%100%
- Week 176-1 as favorite · market expected 68.5%86%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 100-5 as favorite · market expected 64.2%0%
- Week 14-5 as favorite · market expected 63.4%44%
- Week 85-6 as favorite · market expected 67.7%45%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 63% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 4 | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 64% |
| Week 5 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 62% |
| Week 6 | 13 | 7-6 | 54% | 62% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 6-0 | 100% | 68% |
| Week 8 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 68% |
| Week 9 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 67% |
| Week 10 | 5 | 0-5 | 0% | 64% |
| Week 11 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 63% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 8-0 | 100% | 70% |
| Week 13 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 64% |
| Week 14 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 66% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 66% |
| Week 16 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 69% |
| Week 17 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 68% |
| Week 18 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 70% |
| Week 19 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 73% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.