How the Chicago Bears Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-10-22
As favorite
96-41
Win rate
70.1%
Sample size
137 games
vs market
+6.7 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Chicago Bears have been the betting favorite in 137 graded games and won 96 of them — 70.1%. The market priced those same games at 89.3 expected wins, so they finished +6.7 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 53-15 (77.9%) across 68 games, against 49.5 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs MIA · 2006 Week 987.3%
Lost 13–31 on 2006-11-05 · game detail
- vs KC · 2011 Week 1377.7%
Lost 3–10 on 2011-12-04 · game detail
- vs NE · 2024 Week 1073.4%
Lost 3–19 on 2024-11-10 · game detail
- at MIA · 2018 Week 672.4%
Lost 28–31 on 2018-10-14 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2014 Week 171.2%
Lost 20–23 on 2014-09-07 · game detail
- vs DET · 2007 Week 871.0%
Lost 7–16 on 2007-10-28 · game detail
- vs PHI · 2018 Week 1870.9%
Lost 15–16 on 2019-01-06 · game detail
- at LV · 2019 Week 570.7%
Lost 21–24 on 2019-10-06 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 128-0 as favorite · market expected 62.8%100%
- Week 168-0 as favorite · market expected 65.9%100%
- Week 176-0 as favorite · market expected 62.8%100%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 134-7 as favorite · market expected 66.6%36%
- Week 64-5 as favorite · market expected 65.7%44%
- Week 75-5 as favorite · market expected 60.5%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 65% |
| Week 2 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 66% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 63% |
| Week 4 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 64% |
| Week 5 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 65% |
| Week 6 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 66% |
| Week 7 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 8 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 77% |
| Week 9 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 70% |
| Week 10 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 63% |
| Week 11 | 5 | 5-0 | 100% | 63% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 8-0 | 100% | 63% |
| Week 13 | 11 | 4-7 | 36% | 67% |
| Week 14 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 64% |
| Week 15 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 67% |
| Week 16 | 8 | 8-0 | 100% | 66% |
| Week 17 | 6 | 6-0 | 100% | 63% |
| Week 18 | 2 | 0-2 | 0% | 66% |
| Week 19 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 72% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 57% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.