How the Carolina Panthers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-10-25
As favorite
80-58
Win rate
58.0%
Sample size
138 games
vs market
-8.4 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Carolina Panthers have been the betting favorite in 138 graded games and won 80 of them — 58.0%. The market priced those same games at 88.4 expected wins, so they finished -8.4 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 39-15 (72.2%) across 54 games, against 39.5 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs ARI · 2008 Week 1980.5%
Lost 13–33 on 2009-01-10 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2019 Week 1380.3%
Lost 21–29 on 2019-12-01 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2009 Week 774.3%
Lost 9–20 on 2009-10-25 · game detail
- vs HOU · 2007 Week 273.1%
Lost 21–34 on 2007-09-16 · game detail
- vs TB · 2019 Week 271.4%
Lost 14–20 on 2019-09-12 · game detail
- at ATL · 2015 Week 1671.2%
Lost 13–20 on 2015-12-27 · game detail
- vs MIN · 2016 Week 370.5%
Lost 10–22 on 2016-09-25 · game detail
- at WAS · 2006 Week 1269.8%
Lost 13–17 on 2006-11-26 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 176-0 as favorite · market expected 66.4%100%
- Week 166-1 as favorite · market expected 69.7%86%
- Week 156-3 as favorite · market expected 62.9%67%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 42-3 as favorite · market expected 60.1%40%
- Week 142-3 as favorite · market expected 60.4%40%
- Week 63-4 as favorite · market expected 56.6%43%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 60% |
| Week 2 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 66% |
| Week 4 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 60% |
| Week 5 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 65% |
| Week 6 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 57% |
| Week 7 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 62% |
| Week 8 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 64% |
| Week 9 | 4 | 4-0 | 100% | 68% |
| Week 10 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 68% |
| Week 11 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 68% |
| Week 12 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 60% |
| Week 13 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 66% |
| Week 14 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 60% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 63% |
| Week 16 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 70% |
| Week 17 | 6 | 6-0 | 100% | 66% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 69% |
| Week 19 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 63% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 62% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 66% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.