How the Buffalo Bills Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
119-52
Win rate
69.6%
Sample size
171 games
vs market
+3.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Buffalo Bills have been the betting favorite in 171 graded games and won 119 of them — 69.6%. The market priced those same games at 115.4 expected wins, so they finished +3.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 72-25 (74.2%) across 97 games, against 72.9 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at JAX · 2021 Week 988.9%
Lost 6–9 on 2021-11-07 · game detail
- at NYJ · 2022 Week 980.6%
Lost 17–20 on 2022-11-06 · game detail
- at MIA · 2025 Week 1078.7%
Lost 13–30 on 2025-11-09 · game detail
- at NE · 2023 Week 776.6%
Lost 25–29 on 2023-10-22 · game detail
- vs DEN · 2023 Week 1076.6%
Lost 22–24 on 2023-11-13 · game detail
- vs NE · 2025 Week 576.6%
Lost 20–23 on 2025-10-05 · game detail
- vs NE · 2026 Week 474.4%
Lost 26–29 on 2026-10-04 · game detail
- vs IND · 2021 Week 1174.0%
Lost 15–41 on 2021-11-21 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 195-0 as favorite · market expected 73.2%100%
- Week 1510-1 as favorite · market expected 64.7%91%
- Week 89-1 as favorite · market expected 68.2%90%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 52-5 as favorite · market expected 67.3%29%
- Week 94-5 as favorite · market expected 70.2%44%
- Week 104-4 as favorite · market expected 67.5%50%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 64% |
| Week 2 | 13 | 11-2 | 85% | 63% |
| Week 3 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 67% |
| Week 4 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 5 | 7 | 2-5 | 29% | 67% |
| Week 6 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 64% |
| Week 7 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 71% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 68% |
| Week 9 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 70% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 68% |
| Week 11 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 67% |
| Week 13 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 63% |
| Week 14 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 63% |
| Week 15 | 11 | 10-1 | 91% | 65% |
| Week 16 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 73% |
| Week 17 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 71% |
| Week 18 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 74% |
| Week 19 | 5 | 5-0 | 100% | 73% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 0-2 | 0% | 63% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.