How the Baltimore Ravens Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-15 to 2026-10-18
As favorite
167-71
Win rate
70.2%
Sample size
238 games
vs market
+3.3 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Baltimore Ravens have been the betting favorite in 238 graded games and won 167 of them — 70.2%. The market priced those same games at 163.7 expected wins, so they finished +3.3 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 109-30 (78.4%) across 139 games, against 105.6 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at JAX · 2011 Week 782.0%
Lost 7–12 on 2011-10-24 · game detail
- vs CIN · 2009 Week 579.7%
Lost 14–17 on 2009-10-11 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2019 Week 1979.0%
Lost 12–28 on 2020-01-11 · game detail
- vs LV · 2024 Week 278.7%
Lost 23–26 on 2024-09-15 · game detail
- at MIA · 2021 Week 1077.2%
Lost 10–22 on 2021-11-11 · game detail
- vs CIN · 2017 Week 1776.9%
Lost 27–31 on 2017-12-31 · game detail
- vs IND · 2023 Week 376.0%
Lost 19–22 on 2023-09-24 · game detail
- at CLE · 2024 Week 876.0%
Lost 24–29 on 2024-10-27 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 1215-1 as favorite · market expected 65.9%94%
- Week 148-1 as favorite · market expected 72.6%89%
- Week 1112-2 as favorite · market expected 68.5%86%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 75-4 as favorite · market expected 69.2%56%
- Week 28-6 as favorite · market expected 71.7%57%
- Week 58-6 as favorite · market expected 67.7%57%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 67% |
| Week 2 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 72% |
| Week 3 | 18 | 13-5 | 72% | 65% |
| Week 4 | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 67% |
| Week 5 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 15 | 10-5 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 7 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 69% |
| Week 8 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 68% |
| Week 9 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 63% |
| Week 10 | 15 | 9-6 | 60% | 72% |
| Week 11 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 69% |
| Week 12 | 16 | 15-1 | 94% | 66% |
| Week 13 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 68% |
| Week 14 | 9 | 8-1 | 89% | 73% |
| Week 15 | 14 | 12-2 | 86% | 73% |
| Week 16 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 74% |
| Week 17 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 73% |
| Week 18 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 67% |
| Week 19 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 75% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 65% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 66% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.