How the Atlanta Falcons Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-01 to 2026-01-04
As favorite
107-64
Win rate
62.6%
Sample size
171 games
vs market
-2.9 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Atlanta Falcons have been the betting favorite in 171 graded games and won 107 of them — 62.6%. The market priced those same games at 109.9 expected wins, so they finished -2.9 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 53-18 (74.6%) across 71 games, against 52.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs MIA · 2017 Week 686.8%
Lost 17–20 on 2017-10-15 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2013 Week 580.4%
Lost 28–30 on 2013-10-07 · game detail
- at SF · 2015 Week 978.8%
Lost 16–17 on 2015-11-08 · game detail
- vs TB · 2015 Week 878.1%
Lost 20–23 on 2015-11-01 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2006 Week 1077.7%
Lost 13–17 on 2006-11-12 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2017 Week 477.3%
Lost 17–23 on 2017-10-01 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2024 Week 1876.0%
Lost 38–44 on 2025-01-05 · game detail
- vs MIA · 2025 Week 874.8%
Lost 10–34 on 2025-10-26 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 27-0 as favorite · market expected 62.2%100%
- Week 159-1 as favorite · market expected 71.5%90%
- Week 169-2 as favorite · market expected 66.1%82%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 104-7 as favorite · market expected 59.8%36%
- Week 14-6 as favorite · market expected 59.3%40%
- Week 32-3 as favorite · market expected 61.9%40%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 4-6 | 40% | 59% |
| Week 2 | 7 | 7-0 | 100% | 62% |
| Week 3 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 62% |
| Week 4 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 67% |
| Week 5 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 62% |
| Week 6 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 66% |
| Week 7 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 63% |
| Week 8 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 9 | 13 | 9-4 | 69% | 68% |
| Week 10 | 11 | 4-7 | 36% | 60% |
| Week 11 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 65% |
| Week 12 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 64% |
| Week 13 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 58% |
| Week 14 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 62% |
| Week 15 | 10 | 9-1 | 90% | 71% |
| Week 16 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 66% |
| Week 17 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 70% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 70% |
| Week 19 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 59% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 70% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.