How the Arizona Cardinals Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-22 to 2026-10-04
As favorite
74-49
Win rate
60.2%
Sample size
123 games
vs market
-7.5 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Arizona Cardinals have been the betting favorite in 123 graded games and won 74 of them — 60.2%. The market priced those same games at 81.5 expected wins, so they finished -7.5 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 43-24 (64.2%) across 67 games, against 49.2 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at DET · 2021 Week 1583.7%
Lost 12–30 on 2021-12-19 · game detail
- vs SF · 2007 Week 1282.4%
Lost 31–37 on 2007-11-25 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2009 Week 879.8%
Lost 21–34 on 2009-11-01 · game detail
- vs LA · 2016 Week 478.6%
Lost 13–17 on 2016-10-02 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2025 Week 577.7%
Lost 21–22 on 2025-10-05 · game detail
- vs NE · 2016 Week 177.3%
Lost 21–23 on 2016-09-11 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2021 Week 1074.5%
Lost 10–34 on 2021-11-14 · game detail
- vs LA · 2015 Week 472.3%
Lost 22–24 on 2015-10-04 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 26-0 as favorite · market expected 68.4%100%
- Week 115-1 as favorite · market expected 66.4%83%
- Week 134-1 as favorite · market expected 59.7%80%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 42-5 as favorite · market expected 66.3%29%
- Week 62-4 as favorite · market expected 67.8%33%
- Week 122-4 as favorite · market expected 63.0%33%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 63% |
| Week 2 | 6 | 6-0 | 100% | 68% |
| Week 3 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 66% |
| Week 4 | 7 | 2-5 | 29% | 66% |
| Week 5 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 66% |
| Week 6 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 68% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 68% |
| Week 8 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 66% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 58% |
| Week 10 | 9 | 7-2 | 78% | 71% |
| Week 11 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 66% |
| Week 12 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 63% |
| Week 13 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 60% |
| Week 14 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 15 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 16 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 72% |
| Week 17 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 65% |
| Week 18 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 65% |
| Week 19 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 72% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.