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San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.306 equity (35.8% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.015.

SF team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LAOpponent@ PHI

35.8%Win prob31.9%

0.306Equity score0.291

+3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

47.5Game total44.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6WAS @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · SF 8 — WAS 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1559.3ELO rating1464.1

#9ELO rank#24

12-5Record5-12

NFC WestDivisionNFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.1 · #20vs QB19.5 · #30

23.6 · #22vs RB25.6 · #27

32.2 · #21vs WR34.9 · #25

14.8 · #23vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.21 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

5.95Pressures / game7.47

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.1% · #2Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

10.8% · #17Play action11.9% · #11

0.6% · #31RPO6.3% · #12

3.0% · #23Screen pass3.7% · #16

3.7% · #26No huddle50.2% · #1

45.0% · #27Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.6% · #24Man coverage32.0% · #15

22.6% · #25Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

23.2% · #31Pressure31.3% · #14

SF scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)