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New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.071.

NE team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SEAOpponentvs ATL

52.6%Win prob67.2%

0.388Equity score0.459

−0.0Spread4/11 books−5.0

29.5Game total41.5

▼ 0.163Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2PIT @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 19 meetings · NE 14 — PIT 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1561.9ELO rating1529.4

#8ELO rank#13

14-3Record10-7

AFC EastDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#1

L 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.7 · #11vs QB18.8 · #27

19.0 · #5vs RB19.5 · #8

29.2 · #13vs WR35.2 · #26

14.7 · #20vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.24 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

7.95Pressures / game9

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

40.2% · #24Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

10.8% · #19Play action9.2% · #27

1.3% · #30RPO7.0% · #10

2.3% · #30Screen pass6.6% · #1

2.8% · #29No huddle9.7% · #7

46.1% · #25Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.5% · #14Man coverage36.9% · #10

32.3% · #7Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

29.8% · #18Pressure29.5% · #20

NE scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)