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Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.383 equity (53.0% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.077.

MIN team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ LA

53.0%Win prob35.8%

0.383Equity score0.306

−1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

46.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11MIN @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · MIN 8 — SF 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1547.9ELO rating1559.3

#10ELO rank#9

9-8Record12-5

NFC NorthDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

W +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

11.1 · #1vs QB17.1 · #20

19.6 · #9vs RB23.6 · #22

23.7 · #1vs WR32.2 · #21

10.7 · #5vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.88 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game5.95

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.5% · #8Play action10.8% · #17

3.7% · #20RPO0.6% · #31

4.2% · #10Screen pass3.0% · #23

6.1% · #15No huddle3.7% · #26

45.6% · #26Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage26.6% · #24

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

34.1% · #4Pressure23.2% · #31

MIN scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)