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Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Jets at 0.354 — a real gap of 0.028.

MIN team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ TEN

53.0%Win prob47.4%

0.382Equity score0.354

−1.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

46.5Game total38.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17MIN @ NYJnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · MIN 4 — NYJ 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1547.9ELO rating1379.3

#10ELO rank#30

9-8Record3-14

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#4

W +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

11.1 · #1vs QB19.9 · #31

19.6 · #9vs RB28.0 · #31

23.7 · #1vs WR30.3 · #16

10.7 · #5vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.88 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game5.18

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

12.5% · #8Play action8.6% · #29

3.7% · #20RPO7.1% · #8

4.2% · #10Screen pass3.4% · #17

6.1% · #15No huddle8.1% · #10

45.6% · #26Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage40.5% · #6

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

34.1% · #4Pressure24.8% · #30

MIN scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)