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Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Vikings at 0.382 — a real gap of 0.007.

MIN team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs GBOpponent@ SEA

53.0%Win prob52.6%

0.382Equity score0.388

−1.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

46.5Game total29.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14MIN @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · MIN 2 — NE 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1547.9ELO rating1561.9

#10ELO rank#8

9-8Record14-3

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#1

W +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

11.1 · #1vs QB14.7 · #11

19.6 · #9vs RB19.0 · #5

23.7 · #1vs WR29.2 · #13

10.7 · #5vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.88 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game7.95

11-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.3% · #23Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.5% · #8Play action10.8% · #19

3.7% · #20RPO1.3% · #30

4.2% · #10Screen pass2.3% · #30

6.1% · #15No huddle2.8% · #29

45.6% · #26Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

19.0% · #32Man coverage32.5% · #14

46.2% · #1Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

34.1% · #4Pressure29.8% · #18

MIN scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)