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Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.058.

MIA team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LVOpponentvs GB

39.8%Win prob53.0%

0.324Equity score0.382

+3.0Spread11/11 books−1.5

40.5Game total46.5

▼ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4MIA @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · MIA 3 — MIN 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.1ELO rating1547.9

#21ELO rank#10

7-10Record9-8

AFC EastDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#4

L 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #23vs QB11.1 · #1

25.5 · #26vs RB19.6 · #9

29.9 · #14vs WR23.7 · #1

16.2 · #28vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game9.06

7-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

55.9% · #1Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

12.9% · #6Play action12.5% · #8

4.4% · #16RPO3.7% · #20

5.2% · #4Screen pass4.2% · #10

3.1% · #28No huddle6.1% · #15

57.9% · #13Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

28.4% · #21Man coverage19.0% · #32

33.1% · #5Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

27.2% · #28Pressure34.1% · #4

MIA scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)