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Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.163.

LAC team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs ARIOpponent@ SEA

80.1%Win prob52.6%

0.551Equity score0.388

−9.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

47.5Game total29.5

▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12NE @ LACnot played yet

All-time series: 17 meetings · LAC 5 — NE 12. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1536.9ELO rating1561.9

#11ELO rank#8

11-6Record14-3

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#1

L 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #2vs QB14.7 · #11

18.7 · #3vs RB19.0 · #5

27.4 · #11vs WR29.2 · #13

10.5 · #4vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.78 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

8Pressures / game7.95

15-16Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.2% · #19Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.5% · #14Play action10.8% · #19

2.0% · #27RPO1.3% · #30

2.8% · #25Screen pass2.3% · #30

3.9% · #25No huddle2.8% · #29

59.0% · #10Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

23.6% · #27Man coverage32.5% · #14

22.1% · #27Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

31.3% · #12Pressure29.8% · #18

LAC scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)