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Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.227.

LAC team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs ARIOpponent@ LV

80.1%Win prob39.8%

0.551Equity score0.324

−9.5Spread11/11 books+3.0

47.5Game total40.5

▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16LAC @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · LAC 6 — MIA 12. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1536.9ELO rating1475.1

#11ELO rank#21

11-6Record7-10

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #2vs QB18.2 · #23

18.7 · #3vs RB25.5 · #26

27.4 · #11vs WR29.9 · #14

10.5 · #4vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.78 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

8Pressures / game7.65

15-16Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.2% · #19Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

11.5% · #14Play action12.9% · #6

2.0% · #27RPO4.4% · #16

2.8% · #25Screen pass5.2% · #4

3.9% · #25No huddle3.1% · #28

59.0% · #10Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

23.6% · #27Man coverage28.4% · #21

22.1% · #27Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

31.3% · #12Pressure27.2% · #28

LAC scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)