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Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Raiders is the better survivor pick this week

Raiders score 0.426 equity (60.2% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.038.

LV team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs MIAOpponent@ SEA

60.2%Win prob52.6%

0.426Equity score0.388

−3.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

40.5Game total29.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5LV @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 11 meetings · LV 4 — NE 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1373.0ELO rating1561.9

#31ELO rank#8

3-14Record14-3

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#1

W +2 · L 24 · L 2 · L 31 · L 7Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.1 · #16vs QB14.7 · #11

23.4 · #21vs RB19.0 · #5

33.5 · #22vs WR29.2 · #13

10.1 · #2vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

6.76Pressures / game7.95

8-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.4% · #22Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.4% · #9Play action10.8% · #19

3.2% · #23RPO1.3% · #30

4.1% · #12Screen pass2.3% · #30

7.4% · #13No huddle2.8% · #29

54.2% · #19Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.9% · #29Man coverage32.5% · #14

22.4% · #26Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

27.8% · #27Pressure29.8% · #18

LV scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Ashton JeantyRBFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)