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Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Raiders play Dolphins in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices LV carries the higher survivor equity score.

LV team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs MIAOpponent@ LV

60.2%Win prob39.8%

0.426Equity score0.324

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.0

40.5Game total40.5

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Allegiant Stadium

Matchup: MIA @ LV
Spread (home): −3.0 (11 books)
Total: 40.5 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 20:25

Opened LV −3.5, now LV −3.0 · moved 0.5 toward MIA(87 snapshots)

No in-horizon weather forecast stored for this game yet.

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1MIA @ LVnot played yet

All-time series: 17 meetings · LV 4 — MIA 13. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1373.0ELO rating1475.1

#31ELO rank#21

3-14Record7-10

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#3

W +2 · L 24 · L 2 · L 31 · L 7Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.1 · #16vs QB18.2 · #23

23.4 · #21vs RB25.5 · #26

33.5 · #22vs WR29.9 · #14

10.1 · #2vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

6.76Pressures / game7.65

8-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.4% · #22Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

12.4% · #9Play action12.9% · #6

3.2% · #23RPO4.4% · #16

4.1% · #12Screen pass5.2% · #4

7.4% · #13No huddle3.1% · #28

54.2% · #19Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.9% · #29Man coverage28.4% · #21

22.4% · #26Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

27.8% · #27Pressure27.2% · #28

LV scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Ashton JeantyRBFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)