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Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.148.

JAX team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponent@ SEA

77.7%Win prob52.6%

0.536Equity score0.388

−9.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

40.0Game total29.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3NE @ JAXnot played yet

All-time series: 11 meetings · JAX 2 — NE 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1528.9ELO rating1561.9

#14ELO rank#8

13-4Record14-3

AFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.9 · #15vs QB14.7 · #11

18.7 · #2vs RB19.0 · #5

31.2 · #17vs WR29.2 · #13

14.8 · #22vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

9.28Pressures / game7.95

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

10.2% · #22Play action10.8% · #19

3.6% · #21RPO1.3% · #30

3.8% · #15Screen pass2.3% · #30

6.1% · #16No huddle2.8% · #29

50.5% · #24Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage32.5% · #14

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

27.9% · #26Pressure29.8% · #18

JAX scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)