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Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.099.

HOU team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs ATL

47.2%Win prob67.2%

0.361Equity score0.459

+1.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

45.0Game total41.5

▲ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 13HOU @ PITnot played yet

All-time series: 9 meetings · HOU 4 — PIT 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1529.4

#6ELO rank#13

12-5Record10-7

AFC SouthDivisionAFC North

#2Division rank#1

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB18.8 · #27

20.1 · #11vs RB19.5 · #8

25.9 · #3vs WR35.2 · #26

12.3 · #11vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game9

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

11.2% · #16Play action9.2% · #27

1.3% · #29RPO7.0% · #10

2.2% · #31Screen pass6.6% · #1

3.6% · #27No huddle9.7% · #7

51.0% · #23Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage36.9% · #10

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

30.7% · #15Pressure29.5% · #20

HOU scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)