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Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Packers is the better survivor pick this week

Packers score 0.358 equity (46.0% win probability) against Saints at 0.248 — a real gap of 0.111.

GB team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ DET

46.0%Win prob26.6%

0.358Equity score0.248

+1.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

46.5Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 13GB @ NOnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · GB 6 — NO 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1432.4

#15ELO rank#26

9-7-1Record6-11

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#4

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB14.0 · #8

21.9 · #17vs RB20.8 · #13

31.3 · #18vs WR27.8 · #12

12.1 · #10vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

10Pressures / game8.53

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

11.7% · #12Play action9.6% · #25

7.9% · #4RPO4.7% · #15

3.3% · #18Screen pass2.7% · #26

7.2% · #14No huddle18.7% · #2

52.2% · #21Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage22.1% · #28

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

30.7% · #16Pressure28.2% · #24

GB scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)