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Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Packers is the better survivor pick this week

Packers score 0.368 equity (47.0% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.008.

GB team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs BUF

47.0%Win prob47.2%

0.368Equity score0.361

+1.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

46.5Game total45.0

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17HOU @ GBnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · GB 5 — HOU 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1573.1

#15ELO rank#6

9-7-1Record12-5

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB12.8 · #3

21.9 · #17vs RB20.1 · #11

31.3 · #18vs WR25.9 · #3

12.1 · #10vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

10Pressures / game8.42

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

11.7% · #12Play action11.2% · #16

7.9% · #4RPO1.3% · #29

3.3% · #18Screen pass2.2% · #31

7.2% · #14No huddle3.6% · #27

52.2% · #21Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage31.5% · #16

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

30.7% · #16Pressure30.7% · #15

GB scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)