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Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions play Saints in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices DET carries the higher survivor equity score.

DET team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponent@ DET

73.0%Win prob27.0%

0.497Equity score0.253

−7.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

50.0Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Ford Field

Matchup: NO @ DET
Spread (home): −7.0 (11 books)
Total: 50.0 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00

Opened DET −7.0, now DET −7.0 · no spread move yet · Total 49.3 → 50.0 (+0.8)(86 snapshots)

No in-horizon weather forecast stored for this game yet.

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1NO @ DETnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · DET 7 — NO 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1432.4

#7ELO rank#26

9-8Record6-11

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#4

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB14.0 · #8

19.4 · #7vs RB20.8 · #13

35.6 · #29vs WR27.8 · #12

13.7 · #17vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game8.53

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

12.0% · #10Play action9.6% · #25

3.1% · #24RPO4.7% · #15

4.9% · #6Screen pass2.7% · #26

5.0% · #20No huddle18.7% · #2

42.3% · #30Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage22.1% · #28

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

31.8% · #10Pressure28.2% · #24

DET scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)