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Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.497 equity (73.0% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.109.

DET team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponent@ SEA

73.0%Win prob52.6%

0.497Equity score0.388

−7.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

50.0Game total29.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10NE @ DETnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 2 — NE 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1561.9

#7ELO rank#8

9-8Record14-3

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB14.7 · #11

19.4 · #7vs RB19.0 · #5

35.6 · #29vs WR29.2 · #13

13.7 · #17vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game7.95

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.0% · #10Play action10.8% · #19

3.1% · #24RPO1.3% · #30

4.9% · #6Screen pass2.3% · #30

5.0% · #20No huddle2.8% · #29

42.3% · #30Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage32.5% · #14

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

31.8% · #10Pressure29.8% · #18

DET scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)