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Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.196.

DEN team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs CLE

43.2%Win prob77.7%

0.340Equity score0.536

+2.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

43.5Game total40.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2JAX @ DENnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · DEN 5 — JAX 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1528.9

#4ELO rank#14

14-3Record13-4

AFC WestDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB15.9 · #15

17.0 · #1vs RB18.7 · #2

27.0 · #9vs WR31.2 · #17

13.7 · #16vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game9.28

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

12.5% · #7Play action10.2% · #22

7.0% · #9RPO3.6% · #21

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.8% · #15

11.0% · #5No huddle6.1% · #16

54.3% · #16Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage25.4% · #26

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

33.7% · #5Pressure27.9% · #26

DEN scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)