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Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Cowboys is the better survivor pick this week

Cowboys score 0.426 equity (59.3% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.120.

DAL team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NYGOpponent@ LA

59.3%Win prob35.8%

0.426Equity score0.306

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

48.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10SF @ DALnot played yet

All-time series: 14 meetings · DAL 7 — SF 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1485.3ELO rating1559.3

#19ELO rank#9

7-9-1Record12-5

NFC EastDivisionNFC West

#2Division rank#2

L 17 · W +7 · L 17 · L 8 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

23.3 · #32vs QB17.1 · #20

25.7 · #28vs RB23.6 · #22

39.3 · #32vs WR32.2 · #21

12.3 · #12vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

10.76Pressures / game5.95

24-13-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

13.0% · #5Play action10.8% · #17

4.1% · #18RPO0.6% · #31

2.7% · #27Screen pass3.0% · #23

7.8% · #11No huddle3.7% · #26

51.7% · #22Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage26.6% · #24

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

31.8% · #11Pressure23.2% · #31

DAL scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Ajani CorneliusTLimited Participation in Practice
Alijah ClarkSafetyOut
Bruce HarmonCornerbackQuestionable
Caelen CarsonCornerbackOut
CeeDee LambWide ReceiverOut
Christian MatthewCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper BeebeCenterQuestionable
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerQuestionable
Donovan WilsonSafetyQuestionable
Earnest Brown IVDefensive EndQuestionable
Hakeem AdenijiOffensive TackleOut
Jack SanbornLinebackerOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)