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Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Cowboys at 0.426 — a real gap of 0.110.

DAL team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NYGOpponentvs CLE

59.3%Win prob77.7%

0.426Equity score0.536

−3.0Spread11/11 books−8.5

48.0Game total40.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16JAX @ DALnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DAL 3 — JAX 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1485.3ELO rating1528.9

#19ELO rank#14

7-9-1Record13-4

NFC EastDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 17 · W +7 · L 17 · L 8 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

23.3 · #32vs QB15.9 · #15

25.7 · #28vs RB18.7 · #2

39.3 · #32vs WR31.2 · #17

12.3 · #12vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

10.76Pressures / game9.28

24-13-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

13.0% · #5Play action10.2% · #22

4.1% · #18RPO3.6% · #21

2.7% · #27Screen pass3.8% · #15

7.8% · #11No huddle6.1% · #16

51.7% · #22Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage25.4% · #26

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

31.8% · #11Pressure27.9% · #26

DAL scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Ajani CorneliusTLimited Participation in Practice
Alijah ClarkSafetyOut
Bruce HarmonCornerbackQuestionable
Caelen CarsonCornerbackOut
CeeDee LambWide ReceiverOut
Christian MatthewCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper BeebeCenterQuestionable
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerQuestionable
Donovan WilsonSafetyQuestionable
Earnest Brown IVDefensive EndQuestionable
Hakeem AdenijiOffensive TackleOut
Jack SanbornLinebackerOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)