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Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.361 equity (47.2% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.146.

CLE team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponentvs BUF

22.3%Win prob47.2%

0.214Equity score0.361

+8.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

40.0Game total45.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10HOU @ CLEnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · CLE 7 — HOU 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1573.1

#27ELO rank#6

5-12Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#4Division rank#2

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB12.8 · #3

22.8 · #19vs RB20.1 · #11

26.9 · #8vs WR25.9 · #3

12.1 · #9vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game8.42

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

11.2% · #15Play action11.2% · #16

3.0% · #25RPO1.3% · #29

4.2% · #11Screen pass2.2% · #31

7.5% · #12No huddle3.6% · #27

55.8% · #14Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage31.5% · #16

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

35.1% · #1Pressure30.7% · #15

CLE scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)