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Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals play Buccaneers in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices CIN carries the higher survivor equity score.

CIN team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ CIN

64.3%Win prob35.7%

0.436Equity score0.314

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.5Game total50.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Paycor Stadium

Matchup: TB @ CIN
Spread (home): −3.5 (11 books)
Total: 50.5 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00

Opened CIN −3.8, now CIN −3.5 · moved 0.3 toward TB · Total 51.5 → 50.5 (−1.0)(86 snapshots)

Forecast: 89.5°F · wind 4.9 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1TB @ CINnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · CIN 3 — TB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1487.8

#22ELO rank#18

6-11Record8-9

AFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB19.5 · #29

28.6 · #32vs RB22.2 · #18

25.3 · #2vs WR31.5 · #19

20.9 · #31vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game7.82

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

8.5% · #30Play action8.4% · #31

7.3% · #6RPO6.4% · #11

3.3% · #19Screen pass5.1% · #5

2.5% · #31No huddle5.5% · #19

67.0% · #3Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage30.3% · #18

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

29.4% · #22Pressure34.1% · #3

CIN scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)