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Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.444 equity (64.8% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.325 — a real gap of 0.119.

CIN team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ LV

64.8%Win prob39.9%

0.444Equity score0.325

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.0

50.5Game total40.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5CIN @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · CIN 6 — MIA 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1475.1

#22ELO rank#21

6-11Record7-10

AFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB18.2 · #23

28.6 · #32vs RB25.5 · #26

25.3 · #2vs WR29.9 · #14

20.9 · #31vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game7.65

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

8.5% · #30Play action12.9% · #6

7.3% · #6RPO4.4% · #16

3.3% · #19Screen pass5.2% · #4

2.5% · #31No huddle3.1% · #28

67.0% · #3Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage28.4% · #21

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

29.4% · #22Pressure27.2% · #28

CIN scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)