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Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.535 equity (77.6% win probability) against Bears at 0.429 — a real gap of 0.105.

CHI team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs CLE

60.2%Win prob77.6%

0.429Equity score0.535

−3.0Spread11/11 books−8.5

47.0Game total40.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 13JAX @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · CHI 5 — JAX 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1528.9

#17ELO rank#14

11-6Record13-4

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB15.9 · #15

21.7 · #16vs RB18.7 · #2

35.5 · #27vs WR31.2 · #17

13.1 · #14vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game9.28

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

14.7% · #2Play action10.2% · #22

3.6% · #22RPO3.6% · #21

4.1% · #13Screen pass3.8% · #15

4.3% · #24No huddle6.1% · #16

44.2% · #28Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage25.4% · #26

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

28.7% · #23Pressure27.9% · #26

CHI scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)