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Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.497 equity (73.0% win probability) against Panthers at 0.321 — a real gap of 0.176.

CAR team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CHIOpponentvs NO

39.8%Win prob73.0%

0.321Equity score0.497

+3.0Spread11/11 books−7.0

47.0Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4DET @ CARnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · CAR 8 — DET 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1434.3ELO rating1564.1

#25ELO rank#7

8-9Record9-8

NFC SouthDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#3

L 3 · L 2 · L 17 · W +3 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.8 · #6vs QB18.2 · #24

24.1 · #24vs RB19.4 · #7

26.6 · #7vs WR35.6 · #29

13.7 · #18vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.72 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

5.94Pressures / game9.25

3-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

10.4% · #21Play action12.0% · #10

7.8% · #5RPO3.1% · #24

3.0% · #22Screen pass4.9% · #6

4.7% · #23No huddle5.0% · #20

55.4% · #15Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage42.6% · #4

27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

21.3% · #32Pressure31.8% · #10

CAR scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDTLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Damien LewisGuardQuestionable
Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
Jonathon BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
Patrick Jones IILBDid Not Participate In Practice

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)