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Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills play Texans in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices BUF carries the higher survivor equity score.

BUF team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponentvs BUF

52.7%Win prob47.3%

0.398Equity score0.352

−1.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

45.0Game total45.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · Reliant Stadium

Matchup: BUF @ HOU
Spread (home): +1.5 (11 books)
Total: 45.0 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00

Opened HOU −0.0, now HOU +1.5 · moved 1.5 toward BUF · Total 44.5 → 45.0 (+0.5)(86 snapshots)

No in-horizon weather forecast stored for this game yet.

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1BUF @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · BUF 5 — HOU 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1573.1

#2ELO rank#6

12-5Record12-5

AFC EastDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB12.8 · #3

24.4 · #25vs RB20.1 · #11

26.5 · #5vs WR25.9 · #3

—vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game8.42

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

11.6% · #13Play action11.2% · #16

5.4% · #13RPO1.3% · #29

4.4% · #9Screen pass2.2% · #31

4.7% · #22No huddle3.6% · #27

42.6% · #29Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage31.5% · #16

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

34.2% · #2Pressure30.7% · #15

BUF scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)