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Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Ravens is the better survivor pick this week

Ravens score 0.419 equity (61.4% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.109.

BAL team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponent@ CIN

61.4%Win prob35.6%

0.419Equity score0.310

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

48.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14TB @ BALnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · BAL 6 — TB 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1487.8

#12ELO rank#18

8-9Record8-9

AFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB19.5 · #29

23.7 · #23vs RB22.2 · #18

35.7 · #30vs WR31.5 · #19

10.9 · #6vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.82

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

8.9% · #28Play action8.4% · #31

4.4% · #17RPO6.4% · #11

2.8% · #24Screen pass5.1% · #5

2.7% · #30No huddle5.5% · #19

52.4% · #20Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage30.3% · #18

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

28.1% · #25Pressure34.1% · #3

BAL scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)