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Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Ravens is the better survivor pick this week

Ravens score 0.416 equity (61.1% win probability) against Texans at 0.362 — a real gap of 0.054.

BAL team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponentvs BUF

61.1%Win prob47.3%

0.416Equity score0.362

−3.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

48.0Game total44.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12BAL @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 16 meetings · BAL 13 — HOU 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1573.1

#12ELO rank#6

8-9Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB12.8 · #3

23.7 · #23vs RB20.1 · #11

35.7 · #30vs WR25.9 · #3

10.9 · #6vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game8.42

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

8.9% · #28Play action11.2% · #16

4.4% · #17RPO1.3% · #29

2.8% · #24Screen pass2.2% · #31

2.7% · #30No huddle3.6% · #27

52.4% · #20Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage31.5% · #16

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

28.1% · #25Pressure30.7% · #15

BAL scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)